Knee Jerk?

Statistics produced last year by the League Managers' Association showed that the average time a league manager in England is given before he is sacked has dropped to an all-time low of just 1.4 years. The statistics compiled by the LMA also show that half of first-time managers who are sacked never get another managerial job at a league club again.

Paul Simpson led Carlisle back to League 2 in 2004/05 as Conference National play-off winners. Following this, he enjoyed perhaps his best season as a manager, leading Carlisle to winnng promotion to League One as League Two champions. He was also named as the League Two Manager of the Year and was named as the best manager in the country on a points per game basis by the League Managers' Association.


In June 2006, following his success at Carlisle, Simpson left the club to replace Billy Davies as manager of Preston where he led the side to the top of the Championship by December, their highest league placing for 55 years.

However, after only being able to bring 3 free transfers in January they were unable to maintain this position and missed out on the play-offs by goal difference despite beating already promoted Birmingham on the last day. After losing key player David Nugent, the team made a bad start to the 2007-08 season resulting in Simpson being sacked on 13 November 2007.Simpson is currently not managing a club.

How have Preston fared since? Currently joint bottom of the Championship.

In a Football Voice article earlier this year," Cross & Blackwell - 14th August 2010", it was suggested that Sheffield United had been hasty in terminating the contract of Kevin Blackwell so early in the season.Blackwell is currently not managing a club.
How have Sheffield United fared since? Currently joint bottom of the Championship.

April this year saw Notts County looking for their for their third manager of the season after the League One club parted company with Paul Ince a little more than five months after he took over at Meadow Lane. Ince left by mutual consent after a run of five successive defeats left County languishing in 19th place, two points above the relegation zone.Ince is currently not managing a club.

How have Notts County fared since? Currently in the relegation zone in League One.
Empirical evidence shows that following the sacking of a manager there is usually a boost for a short honeymoon period and then the teams performance dips back - until it actually goes slightly below the level it was before the change of manager.

It can be seen in most cases that, between 12 and 18 games after the appointment of the new manager,the points benefit of changing the manager has vanished which suggests that there is only a short-term gain but a longer term negative effect of changing manager.

This is not to say that clubs should never change their manager but rather that in a lot of cases they may be pulling the trigger during a minor 'blip' that has annoyed some of the more vocal supporters of the club rather than what can be seen as a sustained decline over a long period.